The 2020 election is one year away. Here are five things to watch in Florida

In one year, millions of Floridians will decide whether President Donald Trump deserves four more years in office or if it’s time for a change.

Trump has few paths to victory without the Sunshine State. Democrats would love to end his election night early, but they can also secure a win through the Midwest.

The highest midterm turnout in a century helped Democrats pull in big wins across the country last year — though not in Florida. With Trump on the ballot in 2020, both sides are expecting near-record turnout as a motivated opposition meets the president’s energetic fan base.

Here’s what to watch in Florida over the next 365 days as the campaign marches toward another inevitably narrow finish.

There was a historic jump in midterm turnout across all major ethnic groups in 2018 — especially among Latinos.

Outside Florida, this surge in Latino participation helped fuel the so-called blue wave, with 7 in 10 voting Democrat, according to CNN exit polls. But here, the Democratic edge was much slimmer: 54 percent of Latinos went for Democrat Bill Nelson in the U.S. Senate race versus 45 percent for Republican Rick Scott.

Scott won. And in a race decided by 10,000 votes, that made all the difference.

Heading into the 2020 election, Florida’s Hispanics are the state’s fastest-growing demographic and both parties believe many of their votes are up in the air. Hispanics are more likely to register as a no-party affiliation voter rather than as Democrats or Republicans.

“The maddening and thrilling thing about Florida statewide elections is how close they are, so every voter demographic group can be the decisive one,” said Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster and expert on Hispanic voting trends. “Republicans have mastered the margins in Florida.”